Sunday, April 27, 2008
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Presidential Prognostications
I guess we can continue to safely say John McCain will be the Republican candidate. It's still not over on the Democratic side, but I think the odds are very much in Barack Obama'a favor. I'll put it at about 70-30 (his vs. Clinton's chances at scoring the nomination). She must win in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. An Obama victory in either, and I think it is over.
Watch Wisconcin on February 19th. I think he will win there, but if she keeps it close, it could mean things are still very close in general. If he takes it comfortably, then there is no doubt that momentum is on his side. She will need to do better than 55-45 to "keep it close."
Earlier I wrote that the Republicans might be wise to diversify their ticket, perhaps by adding a female VP candidate. I expected Hillary to be the Democratic nominee at the time, and did not anticipate McCain on the GOP side. With the way things have turned out, a woman is less important. McCain will continue his struggle to shore up conservative support. But they will either vote for him or stay home in November (as opposed to vote for the Democrat). Thus a
VP candidate who appeals to the right wing of his party is unessential. McCain's goal should be to pick a VP candidate who does two things: helps him hold the centrists / moderates/ independents (which will be HUGE if Obama is the nominee) and potentially delivers a state in November that would ordinarily go Democrat.
I'm looking at Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, as the name that stands out.
If Hillary beats the odds and wins the nomination, then her VP choice should probably be Obama. But I think a military figure (e.g., Wesley Clark) would serve her well too. But it would be tough to brush aside the momentous support a Clinton-Obama ticket would get.
But if Obama keeps doing what he has been doing, then Hillary's VP pick becomes a moot point. As for his own VP selection, as the candidate of youth and change, he would do well to look for someone older than himself, especially someone with "experience," since that argument will be used against him until the end. And that experience would work best if it were in foreign affairs and military matters.
The name I keep coming back to for an Obama VP is Jim Webb, the senator from Virginia. He served in the military, has a son serving in Iraq (as does McCain), was the assistant Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration, and has been steadfastly against the current war in Iraq. He beat, albeit barely, the popular incumbent Republican George Allen in 2006. He puts Virginia into play for the Democrats in November. He is a centrist/moderate Demoract, which balances Obama's more left-leaning positions.
Having said all that, part of me believes Obama will need his Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush was wise to pick the ultimate insider, with the connections and gravitas to do his dirty work in the campaign and provide assurances that even if the guy at the top of the ticket lacked experience, the other one didn't . I'm not sure any single name stands out on the Democratic side in 2008, as far as this kind of figure goes. I think of former Senator Tom Daschle and former Congressman Dick Gephardt.
My dream scenario would be if Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska crossed over and agreed to run as Obama's VP. The chances are slim to none, but the power of that kind of ticket would be impressive and insurmountable.
Watch Wisconcin on February 19th. I think he will win there, but if she keeps it close, it could mean things are still very close in general. If he takes it comfortably, then there is no doubt that momentum is on his side. She will need to do better than 55-45 to "keep it close."
Earlier I wrote that the Republicans might be wise to diversify their ticket, perhaps by adding a female VP candidate. I expected Hillary to be the Democratic nominee at the time, and did not anticipate McCain on the GOP side. With the way things have turned out, a woman is less important. McCain will continue his struggle to shore up conservative support. But they will either vote for him or stay home in November (as opposed to vote for the Democrat). Thus a
VP candidate who appeals to the right wing of his party is unessential. McCain's goal should be to pick a VP candidate who does two things: helps him hold the centrists / moderates/ independents (which will be HUGE if Obama is the nominee) and potentially delivers a state in November that would ordinarily go Democrat.
I'm looking at Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, as the name that stands out.
If Hillary beats the odds and wins the nomination, then her VP choice should probably be Obama. But I think a military figure (e.g., Wesley Clark) would serve her well too. But it would be tough to brush aside the momentous support a Clinton-Obama ticket would get.
But if Obama keeps doing what he has been doing, then Hillary's VP pick becomes a moot point. As for his own VP selection, as the candidate of youth and change, he would do well to look for someone older than himself, especially someone with "experience," since that argument will be used against him until the end. And that experience would work best if it were in foreign affairs and military matters.
The name I keep coming back to for an Obama VP is Jim Webb, the senator from Virginia. He served in the military, has a son serving in Iraq (as does McCain), was the assistant Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration, and has been steadfastly against the current war in Iraq. He beat, albeit barely, the popular incumbent Republican George Allen in 2006. He puts Virginia into play for the Democrats in November. He is a centrist/moderate Demoract, which balances Obama's more left-leaning positions.
Having said all that, part of me believes Obama will need his Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush was wise to pick the ultimate insider, with the connections and gravitas to do his dirty work in the campaign and provide assurances that even if the guy at the top of the ticket lacked experience, the other one didn't . I'm not sure any single name stands out on the Democratic side in 2008, as far as this kind of figure goes. I think of former Senator Tom Daschle and former Congressman Dick Gephardt.
My dream scenario would be if Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska crossed over and agreed to run as Obama's VP. The chances are slim to none, but the power of that kind of ticket would be impressive and insurmountable.
Oscar Prognostications
'Tis the season, afterall. But barely, given the recently ended writer's strike. But the show will go on next Sunday. I wrapped up my movie-going early this season, so here they are...
Get my vote:
Picture - No Country for Old Men
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Actress - Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Supporting actor - Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Supporting actress - Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Director - Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Most of these will win as well: No Country for Picture, Day-Lewis for actor, Bardem for supporting actor, and the Coen brothers for director. Cotillard will lose to Julie Christie (Away from Her) for actress and Blanchett will fall to Ruby Dee (American Gangster).
Get my vote and will win:
Original Screenplay - Juno
Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men
Animated Film - Ratatouille
Art Direction - Atonement
Cinematography - No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing - Transformers
Sound Editing - Bourne Ultimatum
Score - Atonement
Song - Falling Slowly
Costumes - Elizabeth, The Golden Age
Make up - La Vie en Rose
Visual effects - Transformers
Film editing - No Country for Old Men
Documentary feature - No End in Sight
Get my vote:
Picture - No Country for Old Men
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Actress - Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Supporting actor - Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Supporting actress - Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Director - Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Most of these will win as well: No Country for Picture, Day-Lewis for actor, Bardem for supporting actor, and the Coen brothers for director. Cotillard will lose to Julie Christie (Away from Her) for actress and Blanchett will fall to Ruby Dee (American Gangster).
Get my vote and will win:
Original Screenplay - Juno
Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men
Animated Film - Ratatouille
Art Direction - Atonement
Cinematography - No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing - Transformers
Sound Editing - Bourne Ultimatum
Score - Atonement
Song - Falling Slowly
Costumes - Elizabeth, The Golden Age
Make up - La Vie en Rose
Visual effects - Transformers
Film editing - No Country for Old Men
Documentary feature - No End in Sight
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Giants 17, Patriots 14. I called it 27-17 for the Patriots. I guess I had the Giants offense pegged. I never expected the Patriots offense to do so poorly. It was tough to watch, and one had the sense very early on that it was going to end badly for us.
And I missed the call on the GOP nomination. Romney crashed and burned while McCain continued to rise. What I expected to happen was the demise of Mike Huckabee some weeks ago, leading to a consolidation of conservative support behind Romney. But Huckabee hung tough and McCain won a series of primaries he probably shouldn't have. It's the Bill Clinton trick. In a three-way race, it's a lot easier to win when the other two draw from the same pool.
So John McCain, 72, will be the Republican (and the oldest ever in any party) nominee for president. This negates the need for a female on the GOP ticket, given McCain's moderate positions. He will have some appeal to independent voters regardless of who his running mate is.
McCain's victory makes it almost necessary that the Democrats nominate Barack Obama if they want to win. Hillary could beat a "true conservative" or a less maverick Republican. I don't think she would beat McCain. Unlike Clinton, Obama has a message. Like his policies or not, his campaign is now a message-driven movement. And the message candidate is more appealing to the wider audience. Obama will compete with McCain for voters in the middle much better than Hillary can.
The question is, will Obama beat Clinton? I thought Hillary would have been crowned by now. But he has fought his way to his current powerful position. I think the money and the momentum are on his side and he might very well win the nomination. But it's far from over and she has almost as good a chance.
I was thrilled to cast a vote for Obama on Super Tuesday. This was the first presidential primary I have voted in that meant anything. In 2004 John Kerry had wrapped up the nomination by the time the Massachusetts primary rolled around. I actually skipped voting. In 2000 I voted for Bill Bradley over Al Gore, but Gore was a shoo-in. And in my first presidential primary in 1996, Bill Clinton was unopposed.
It is an exciting election season. One thing I know. Even a McCain victory in November will be a vast improvement over what we have now.
And I missed the call on the GOP nomination. Romney crashed and burned while McCain continued to rise. What I expected to happen was the demise of Mike Huckabee some weeks ago, leading to a consolidation of conservative support behind Romney. But Huckabee hung tough and McCain won a series of primaries he probably shouldn't have. It's the Bill Clinton trick. In a three-way race, it's a lot easier to win when the other two draw from the same pool.
So John McCain, 72, will be the Republican (and the oldest ever in any party) nominee for president. This negates the need for a female on the GOP ticket, given McCain's moderate positions. He will have some appeal to independent voters regardless of who his running mate is.
McCain's victory makes it almost necessary that the Democrats nominate Barack Obama if they want to win. Hillary could beat a "true conservative" or a less maverick Republican. I don't think she would beat McCain. Unlike Clinton, Obama has a message. Like his policies or not, his campaign is now a message-driven movement. And the message candidate is more appealing to the wider audience. Obama will compete with McCain for voters in the middle much better than Hillary can.
The question is, will Obama beat Clinton? I thought Hillary would have been crowned by now. But he has fought his way to his current powerful position. I think the money and the momentum are on his side and he might very well win the nomination. But it's far from over and she has almost as good a chance.
I was thrilled to cast a vote for Obama on Super Tuesday. This was the first presidential primary I have voted in that meant anything. In 2004 John Kerry had wrapped up the nomination by the time the Massachusetts primary rolled around. I actually skipped voting. In 2000 I voted for Bill Bradley over Al Gore, but Gore was a shoo-in. And in my first presidential primary in 1996, Bill Clinton was unopposed.
It is an exciting election season. One thing I know. Even a McCain victory in November will be a vast improvement over what we have now.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Winter Dreams
90 degrees for my last post; about 75 degrees colder for this one. I guess I waited some time. It's a long weekend, a bit light on the correcting duties, so a chance presents itself to put thought on paper. or on screen anyway.
So the Patriots are 18-0 and SuperBowl bound. When I last wrote, the season was in its infancy and we were all gearing up for the Red Sox playoff push and eventual World Championship. In October, Josh Beckett was basically the closest thing to God we've seen around these parts. Now Tom Brady has reclaimed that post (although he did have a less than divine performance against San Diego this weekend). And then the NBA season started and the Celtics became the best team in decades. I'm not much for watching basketball, but I must admit turning into a fair weather Celtics fan. They are mighty fun to watch. And the Bruins are not horrible. They are not great either, but it's been a decent season so far. It's a good time to be a Boston sports fan.
And of course, wouldn't the Patriots draw the New York Giants as the SuperBowl opponent. I guess in a year when we were spared the inevitable Red Sox-Yankess postseason matchup, this evens the scales a bit. I like our chances, but game 16 was against New York and it was a tight one. Eli Manning can be much better than the mediocrity he often slides into. And he has been impressive in the last three or four weeks, dating back to that game 16 in New York.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 17
Meanwhile, my #1 presidential candidate, Barack Obama, is defying odds. No one expected him to be where he is today. This was supposed to be a walk in the park for Hillary. I'm glad to see the struggle. I expected the Democratic party to just hand her the torch and march straight into disaster in November against whatever Republican candidate picked up enough momentum. And that may still happen; but the torch has not just been handed over. There is hesitation; there is doubt; there is a desire for something different. I think the odds are in her favor to win the nomination, but the process will have been good.
Prediction: This Saturday, Obama will win the South Carolina primary pretty comfortably. John Edwards will be out of this race by next Monday. South Carolina is where he was born; he lives in North Carolina. Anything but a win and he's done. He might even go so far as to endorse Obama.
Prediction: Hillary emerges as the definitive front runner on Feb. 5th (Super Tuesday). Obama will not concede then, but that day will mark the final swing of the pendulum in her favor.
Prediction: In mid-summer Hillary will choose a running mate. It will not be either Obama or Edwards. It will be a military figure, perhaps Wesley Clark, but definitely someone like him.
Things are much more fluid on the Republican side. No one can get a clear edge as frontrunner. I think these guys will go past Super Tuesday before the dust settles. And it's a tough one to call.
Prediction: Mitt Romney does well on Super Tuesday, not well enough to put the others away, but enough to become the leader of the pack. McCain dogs him a little while longer, but ultimately Romney becomes the default pick for Republican voters who feel they lack any better alternative.
Prediction: Whoever the Republican nominee is, and I expect it to be Romney, his running mate might well be a woman.
And the Oscar nominations come out tomorrow (Tuesday). I'm still playing catch up, but I think it's fair to say that No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, and Atonement should lead the way in total nominations.
A few things I'd like to see among the nominations:
for Picture: American Gangster, There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Into the Wild
for actor: Denzel Washington (American Gangster), Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
for actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
And I'd like to see Juno get recognition in any category (probably screenplay, music, and maybe lead actress). Also Sweeney Todd (direction maybe). And Eddie Vedder did a great job with the music to Into the Wild, so I'd like to see him get nominated too.
So the Patriots are 18-0 and SuperBowl bound. When I last wrote, the season was in its infancy and we were all gearing up for the Red Sox playoff push and eventual World Championship. In October, Josh Beckett was basically the closest thing to God we've seen around these parts. Now Tom Brady has reclaimed that post (although he did have a less than divine performance against San Diego this weekend). And then the NBA season started and the Celtics became the best team in decades. I'm not much for watching basketball, but I must admit turning into a fair weather Celtics fan. They are mighty fun to watch. And the Bruins are not horrible. They are not great either, but it's been a decent season so far. It's a good time to be a Boston sports fan.
And of course, wouldn't the Patriots draw the New York Giants as the SuperBowl opponent. I guess in a year when we were spared the inevitable Red Sox-Yankess postseason matchup, this evens the scales a bit. I like our chances, but game 16 was against New York and it was a tight one. Eli Manning can be much better than the mediocrity he often slides into. And he has been impressive in the last three or four weeks, dating back to that game 16 in New York.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 17
Meanwhile, my #1 presidential candidate, Barack Obama, is defying odds. No one expected him to be where he is today. This was supposed to be a walk in the park for Hillary. I'm glad to see the struggle. I expected the Democratic party to just hand her the torch and march straight into disaster in November against whatever Republican candidate picked up enough momentum. And that may still happen; but the torch has not just been handed over. There is hesitation; there is doubt; there is a desire for something different. I think the odds are in her favor to win the nomination, but the process will have been good.
Prediction: This Saturday, Obama will win the South Carolina primary pretty comfortably. John Edwards will be out of this race by next Monday. South Carolina is where he was born; he lives in North Carolina. Anything but a win and he's done. He might even go so far as to endorse Obama.
Prediction: Hillary emerges as the definitive front runner on Feb. 5th (Super Tuesday). Obama will not concede then, but that day will mark the final swing of the pendulum in her favor.
Prediction: In mid-summer Hillary will choose a running mate. It will not be either Obama or Edwards. It will be a military figure, perhaps Wesley Clark, but definitely someone like him.
Things are much more fluid on the Republican side. No one can get a clear edge as frontrunner. I think these guys will go past Super Tuesday before the dust settles. And it's a tough one to call.
Prediction: Mitt Romney does well on Super Tuesday, not well enough to put the others away, but enough to become the leader of the pack. McCain dogs him a little while longer, but ultimately Romney becomes the default pick for Republican voters who feel they lack any better alternative.
Prediction: Whoever the Republican nominee is, and I expect it to be Romney, his running mate might well be a woman.
And the Oscar nominations come out tomorrow (Tuesday). I'm still playing catch up, but I think it's fair to say that No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, and Atonement should lead the way in total nominations.
A few things I'd like to see among the nominations:
for Picture: American Gangster, There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Into the Wild
for actor: Denzel Washington (American Gangster), Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
for actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
And I'd like to see Juno get recognition in any category (probably screenplay, music, and maybe lead actress). Also Sweeney Todd (direction maybe). And Eddie Vedder did a great job with the music to Into the Wild, so I'd like to see him get nominated too.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)