Presidential Prognostications

I guess we can continue to safely say John McCain will be the Republican candidate. It's still not over on the Democratic side, but I think the odds are very much in Barack Obama'a favor. I'll put it at about 70-30 (his vs. Clinton's chances at scoring the nomination). She must win in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. An Obama victory in either, and I think it is over.

Watch Wisconcin on February 19th. I think he will win there, but if she keeps it close, it could mean things are still very close in general. If he takes it comfortably, then there is no doubt that momentum is on his side. She will need to do better than 55-45 to "keep it close."

Earlier I wrote that the Republicans might be wise to diversify their ticket, perhaps by adding a female VP candidate. I expected Hillary to be the Democratic nominee at the time, and did not anticipate McCain on the GOP side. With the way things have turned out, a woman is less important. McCain will continue his struggle to shore up conservative support. But they will either vote for him or stay home in November (as opposed to vote for the Democrat). Thus a
VP candidate who appeals to the right wing of his party is unessential. McCain's goal should be to pick a VP candidate who does two things: helps him hold the centrists / moderates/ independents (which will be HUGE if Obama is the nominee) and potentially delivers a state in November that would ordinarily go Democrat.

I'm looking at Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, as the name that stands out.

If Hillary beats the odds and wins the nomination, then her VP choice should probably be Obama. But I think a military figure (e.g., Wesley Clark) would serve her well too. But it would be tough to brush aside the momentous support a Clinton-Obama ticket would get.

But if Obama keeps doing what he has been doing, then Hillary's VP pick becomes a moot point. As for his own VP selection, as the candidate of youth and change, he would do well to look for someone older than himself, especially someone with "experience," since that argument will be used against him until the end. And that experience would work best if it were in foreign affairs and military matters.

The name I keep coming back to for an Obama VP is Jim Webb, the senator from Virginia. He served in the military, has a son serving in Iraq (as does McCain), was the assistant Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration, and has been steadfastly against the current war in Iraq. He beat, albeit barely, the popular incumbent Republican George Allen in 2006. He puts Virginia into play for the Democrats in November. He is a centrist/moderate Demoract, which balances Obama's more left-leaning positions.

Having said all that, part of me believes Obama will need his Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush was wise to pick the ultimate insider, with the connections and gravitas to do his dirty work in the campaign and provide assurances that even if the guy at the top of the ticket lacked experience, the other one didn't . I'm not sure any single name stands out on the Democratic side in 2008, as far as this kind of figure goes. I think of former Senator Tom Daschle and former Congressman Dick Gephardt.

My dream scenario would be if Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska crossed over and agreed to run as Obama's VP. The chances are slim to none, but the power of that kind of ticket would be impressive and insurmountable.

Oscar Prognostications

'Tis the season, afterall. But barely, given the recently ended writer's strike. But the show will go on next Sunday. I wrapped up my movie-going early this season, so here they are...

Get my vote:
Picture - No Country for Old Men
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Actress - Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Supporting actor - Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Supporting actress - Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Director - Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Most of these will win as well: No Country for Picture, Day-Lewis for actor, Bardem for supporting actor, and the Coen brothers for director. Cotillard will lose to Julie Christie (Away from Her) for actress and Blanchett will fall to Ruby Dee (American Gangster).

Get my vote and will win:
Original Screenplay - Juno
Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men
Animated Film - Ratatouille
Art Direction - Atonement
Cinematography - No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing - Transformers
Sound Editing - Bourne Ultimatum
Score - Atonement
Song - Falling Slowly
Costumes - Elizabeth, The Golden Age
Make up - La Vie en Rose
Visual effects - Transformers
Film editing - No Country for Old Men
Documentary feature - No End in Sight

Giants 17, Patriots 14. I called it 27-17 for the Patriots. I guess I had the Giants offense pegged. I never expected the Patriots offense to do so poorly. It was tough to watch, and one had the sense very early on that it was going to end badly for us.

And I missed the call on the GOP nomination. Romney crashed and burned while McCain continued to rise. What I expected to happen was the demise of Mike Huckabee some weeks ago, leading to a consolidation of conservative support behind Romney. But Huckabee hung tough and McCain won a series of primaries he probably shouldn't have. It's the Bill Clinton trick. In a three-way race, it's a lot easier to win when the other two draw from the same pool.

So John McCain, 72, will be the Republican (and the oldest ever in any party) nominee for president. This negates the need for a female on the GOP ticket, given McCain's moderate positions. He will have some appeal to independent voters regardless of who his running mate is.

McCain's victory makes it almost necessary that the Democrats nominate Barack Obama if they want to win. Hillary could beat a "true conservative" or a less maverick Republican. I don't think she would beat McCain. Unlike Clinton, Obama has a message. Like his policies or not, his campaign is now a message-driven movement. And the message candidate is more appealing to the wider audience. Obama will compete with McCain for voters in the middle much better than Hillary can.

The question is, will Obama beat Clinton? I thought Hillary would have been crowned by now. But he has fought his way to his current powerful position. I think the money and the momentum are on his side and he might very well win the nomination. But it's far from over and she has almost as good a chance.

I was thrilled to cast a vote for Obama on Super Tuesday. This was the first presidential primary I have voted in that meant anything. In 2004 John Kerry had wrapped up the nomination by the time the Massachusetts primary rolled around. I actually skipped voting. In 2000 I voted for Bill Bradley over Al Gore, but Gore was a shoo-in. And in my first presidential primary in 1996, Bill Clinton was unopposed.

It is an exciting election season. One thing I know. Even a McCain victory in November will be a vast improvement over what we have now.