Thursday, February 7, 2008

Giants 17, Patriots 14. I called it 27-17 for the Patriots. I guess I had the Giants offense pegged. I never expected the Patriots offense to do so poorly. It was tough to watch, and one had the sense very early on that it was going to end badly for us.

And I missed the call on the GOP nomination. Romney crashed and burned while McCain continued to rise. What I expected to happen was the demise of Mike Huckabee some weeks ago, leading to a consolidation of conservative support behind Romney. But Huckabee hung tough and McCain won a series of primaries he probably shouldn't have. It's the Bill Clinton trick. In a three-way race, it's a lot easier to win when the other two draw from the same pool.

So John McCain, 72, will be the Republican (and the oldest ever in any party) nominee for president. This negates the need for a female on the GOP ticket, given McCain's moderate positions. He will have some appeal to independent voters regardless of who his running mate is.

McCain's victory makes it almost necessary that the Democrats nominate Barack Obama if they want to win. Hillary could beat a "true conservative" or a less maverick Republican. I don't think she would beat McCain. Unlike Clinton, Obama has a message. Like his policies or not, his campaign is now a message-driven movement. And the message candidate is more appealing to the wider audience. Obama will compete with McCain for voters in the middle much better than Hillary can.

The question is, will Obama beat Clinton? I thought Hillary would have been crowned by now. But he has fought his way to his current powerful position. I think the money and the momentum are on his side and he might very well win the nomination. But it's far from over and she has almost as good a chance.

I was thrilled to cast a vote for Obama on Super Tuesday. This was the first presidential primary I have voted in that meant anything. In 2004 John Kerry had wrapped up the nomination by the time the Massachusetts primary rolled around. I actually skipped voting. In 2000 I voted for Bill Bradley over Al Gore, but Gore was a shoo-in. And in my first presidential primary in 1996, Bill Clinton was unopposed.

It is an exciting election season. One thing I know. Even a McCain victory in November will be a vast improvement over what we have now.