I guess we can continue to safely say John McCain will be the Republican candidate. It's still not over on the Democratic side, but I think the odds are very much in Barack Obama'a favor. I'll put it at about 70-30 (his vs. Clinton's chances at scoring the nomination). She must win in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. An Obama victory in either, and I think it is over.
Watch Wisconcin on February 19th. I think he will win there, but if she keeps it close, it could mean things are still very close in general. If he takes it comfortably, then there is no doubt that momentum is on his side. She will need to do better than 55-45 to "keep it close."
Earlier I wrote that the Republicans might be wise to diversify their ticket, perhaps by adding a female VP candidate. I expected Hillary to be the Democratic nominee at the time, and did not anticipate McCain on the GOP side. With the way things have turned out, a woman is less important. McCain will continue his struggle to shore up conservative support. But they will either vote for him or stay home in November (as opposed to vote for the Democrat). Thus a
VP candidate who appeals to the right wing of his party is unessential. McCain's goal should be to pick a VP candidate who does two things: helps him hold the centrists / moderates/ independents (which will be HUGE if Obama is the nominee) and potentially delivers a state in November that would ordinarily go Democrat.
I'm looking at Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, as the name that stands out.
If Hillary beats the odds and wins the nomination, then her VP choice should probably be Obama. But I think a military figure (e.g., Wesley Clark) would serve her well too. But it would be tough to brush aside the momentous support a Clinton-Obama ticket would get.
But if Obama keeps doing what he has been doing, then Hillary's VP pick becomes a moot point. As for his own VP selection, as the candidate of youth and change, he would do well to look for someone older than himself, especially someone with "experience," since that argument will be used against him until the end. And that experience would work best if it were in foreign affairs and military matters.
The name I keep coming back to for an Obama VP is Jim Webb, the senator from Virginia. He served in the military, has a son serving in Iraq (as does McCain), was the assistant Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration, and has been steadfastly against the current war in Iraq. He beat, albeit barely, the popular incumbent Republican George Allen in 2006. He puts Virginia into play for the Democrats in November. He is a centrist/moderate Demoract, which balances Obama's more left-leaning positions.
Having said all that, part of me believes Obama will need his Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush was wise to pick the ultimate insider, with the connections and gravitas to do his dirty work in the campaign and provide assurances that even if the guy at the top of the ticket lacked experience, the other one didn't . I'm not sure any single name stands out on the Democratic side in 2008, as far as this kind of figure goes. I think of former Senator Tom Daschle and former Congressman Dick Gephardt.
My dream scenario would be if Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska crossed over and agreed to run as Obama's VP. The chances are slim to none, but the power of that kind of ticket would be impressive and insurmountable.
